how to survive in the world with diminishing resources and growing appetites?

The gloomy daily news show that we are entering yet another Malthusian squeeze. As early as in 1798 the guy has found out that resources are limited (indeed), while people tend to multiply as so many rabbits. thus, the reasoning goes, sooner or later there must be a correction: people either die, of wars and famines, or stop multiplying voluntarily. and indeed we see as both of these scenarios are currently unfolding: the latter in the Western world, the former in the developing countries. So, all is gloom and there is no exit or salvation.

meanwhile, this is obviously wrong — despite occasional bloodbaths, people managed not only to greatly multiply since Malthus’ times, but also significantly improve their lot. So, there must be a solution to the Malthusian paradox, which is especially important nowadays during the crunch period, when we need to know how to escape or, at least alleviate it.

the solution can be found easily as soon as we look at historic maps. since the start of written history some 6-7 thousand years ago, civilization spread around by domesticating ever new distinct geoclimatic zones as soon as the older ones were exhausted.

We can name 6 such zones as to this date, corresponding to traditional historic periods. 1. Civilization started in the tiny area of great rivers’ deltas, uniquely suitable for irrigation agriculture. 2. Then, the center of development moved to the classic
Mediterranean, which grew rich on marketable cultures, to compensate for its soils unsuitable for wheat, but perfect for growing the olive and the vine in its arid climate. 3. After the collapse of Rome, we see the gradual rise of the medieval
Europe, which cleared its forests to till its heavy but fertile clay soils. 4. After the ecological catastrophe of the 1348 Black Death related to the deforestation of
Europe, the center of growth moved to the northern shores, with animal husbandry and fishing substituting for and stretching scarce grain. The growth of market economy led to trading in items that previously could be collected in the forest (i.e. timber) and led to the development of the sturdy “frame-built” ship able to sail the
Atlantic. As a side benefit the
Americas were “discovered” with the great influx of gold and silver specie leading to the marketing boom. 5. On the next stage,
England compensated for its lack of wood and rivers, the prime resources of the previous Age of Exploration by developing its unique model based on coal. it also pursued land improvement as the so called coppice woods (the source for renewable timber) could now be cleared off for sheep-grazing meadows. The British colonialism used this model of land improvement for the so called agrarian colonialism, with “white” settlements all over the world within the temperate climate zone. 6. The mass societies of the 20^th Century broke through the barrier of temperate climate that previously restricted the man-farmer. The agriculture in this new zone of the extreme climate, first and foremost, in the
US, was based on irrigation using the Ogallala Aquifer and an excellent system of roads to deliver its products to the market based on oil. The
USSR was less successful with its Virgin lands, presumably because of the lack of sufficient artesian water sources.

so, as we see, there is hope, even as the geoclimatic zone of the mass market agriculture dependent on oil seems to be exhausted. All we need to do is to find the next promising geoclimatic zone, with its unique resource and start domesticating it.

that wouldn’t be too easy. Domestication of a new zone is a difficult and trouble fraught process. fortunately enough, the past provides a good road map, as each zone, inasmuch unique must pass through the same stages, not unlike birth, maturity and death of a living being.

i analyzed these stages and will write about them in my future blogs. I feel that it is very important to start a wide discussion of it as we are swiftly approaching the period homologous to world war I the likes of which took place at the start of each new historic period.